Wednesday, April 01, 2009

OnLive....business model buster


This could be very big…

The recent announcement of OnLive has no doubt sent a rumble through the heart of the entire technology industry. OnLive purports to be able to deliver high-end gaming via broadband – you will need nothing more than a reasonably fast internet connection and, for lounge gamers, a small ‘micro-console’ box which provides a simple network box and a graphics link to your monitor or hdtv. The OnLive service will be delivered to pc gamers via their web browser (much like QuakeLive).

Whilst many are taking a ‘believe it when I see it’ approach, the Ninja is intrigued by the implications of this service. If OnLive can deliver games with nothing more than a broadband link and basic graphical adapter then they can also deliver HD video, music and, even more frightening, high-end computing via their cloud. It would render most pc-based industries’ business models obsolete – no need for a PS3, the latest version of your operating system or a new high-end £200+ graphics card to play the latest and greatest games, just a subscription to the service.

The benefits to gamers are obvious – high-end performance for low-end price. No need to go out and ‘buy’ physical games on DVD-ROMs; simply rent them for a period of time. Finish the game then move on to the next one. Very few of us gamers play a game more than once anyway!

For games publishers, it is an interesting quandary…a £40.00 game sold via DVD might retail for more than say a £10.00 OnLive purchase (just a guess) but what’s the net profit? What are the overheads for selling by DVD compared to virtually? Physically making, printing, publishing, burning, packing, shipping and ultimately selling the game via retailers (who also take their cut) must mean that the margins on the physical side of things are pretty low. If OnLive can deliver the same net profit, why shouldn’t game makers back it? Indeed, in a major coup, almost every major software house has already linked up with OnLive. Retail stores must be fearing the worst.

For pc makers, the service is clearly a potential rival (potential nuclear bomb more like) but again, there is an argument for backing the system. Imagine a pc maker being able to include a period of subscription to the service in with their desktop or laptop and being able to market it as ‘OnLive ready’ or perhaps hardware manufacturers could offer cheap, tiny pcs (perhaps based on systems with Intel Atom processors or Nvidia’s new Ion) which would do nothing more than allow the displaying of a web browser on a monitor or HDTV. A stripped out mini pc could deliver the same experience as the OnLive console. It wouldn’t be hard to imagine that the margins, thanks to higher volumes, on small ‘OnLive capable’ pcs would be almost as good if not better than expensive, monster desktop rigs.

In terms of being green, cloud computing significantly reduces the domestic energy load, and as the processing is done ‘off-site’ less grunt is needed, possibly prolonging the life of older system and significantly boosting energy efficiency. Also, it would be nice to think that there might still be a use for that aging Athlon XP motherboard I have kicking around in my office. Drop it in a snappy new case, hook it up to my network and, voila, an OnLive gaming pc!

Despite the hype and hope, there is much still to be ascertained about this service with many claiming that network issues, amongst others, will shatter any plans for success but OnLive have some successful industry people on their team and some critical partners on-side already who must have seen something to believe in behind some very tightly closed doors.

The service is currently in closed beta with a fresh round planned for US customers in the summer. The ninja is already subscribed for more details and will likely be front and centre for a piece as and when (or is it if?) OnLive goes live.


One to watch indeed…

1 comment:

Valeri Wiegel said...

I wonder what minimum bandwidth is needed to deliver this service to the customer.
There was an interesting event about cloud computing last week at the university of edinburgh.